New Hampshire Demographic Trends—What It Means for You
Join us for a conversation with Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson, who will discuss recent demographic trends in New Hampshire using the latest data from the Census Bureau. In addition to sharing factors influencing these trends, he will explain why demographic variation within the state underscores the importance of developing policies that ensure New Hampshire communities have the plans, resources, and infrastructure to support their population.
Watch the Video
Access Related Briefs
Recent Demographic Change in NH and NE
- Modest Population Gains Widespread in New Hampshire Counties
- New England is Gaining Population Due to Immigration
- New Census Data Reveal Modest Population Growth in New Hampshire Over the Past Decade
- Modest Population Gains, but Growing Diversity in New Hampshire Children in the Vanguard
- Migration Sustains New Hampshire's Population Gain
Impact and Importance of Migrants and Retaining Population
- Domestic Migrants and Dollars Flowed to New Hampshire During the Pandemic
- Retaining Residents Is Important to New Hampshire's Future
- Why People Move to and Stay in New Hampshire
About the Speaker
Kenneth Johnson is the senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy and a professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire. He is a nationally recognized expert on U.S. demographic trends. His research examines national and regional population redistribution, rural and urban demographic change, the growing racial diversity of the U.S. population, the relationship between demographic and environmental change, and the implications of demographic change for public policy.
Dr. Johnson has published a book and more than 300 articles, reports, and papers. His peer-reviewed publications have appeared in leading academic journals. He is also sought after for his expertise and ability to explain demographic information to a broad audience, both by policy groups and by the media. His research has been funded by grants from the National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. He received his doctorate in sociology and demography from the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and his undergraduate training at the University of Michigan.
How does youth outmigration impact higher education investment in New Hampshire?
I am not an education policy expert, but I have been struck by how New Hampshire loses a significant share of its high school graduates to educational opportunities in other places. While I don't have any solution to the problem, it sure is a relevant issue, and I think it is something that needs to be addressed.
Will in-migratrion offset workforce challenges?
I think it goes to this issue that all the attention is focused on migration, but maintaining our population in New Hampshire is also an important issue. It depends on a lot of different things.
Certainly, the influx of well-educated people helps New Hampshire have a skilled and knowledgeable workforce, but if we can retain more of our young people, it would heighten our advantage.
How reliable are demographic projections?
This is an issue I deal with all the time; I am not a big fan of prediction or projection. I've seen too many bad projections and too many bad predictions in demographic trends.
If you asked me if the older population in New Hampshire is going to grow significantly in the future, I would say yes, for what's going to happen to the younger population, which depends on so many things—fertility patterns, and whether young adults decide to have children.
We need to recognize that there are going to be areas dealing with growing populations and others dealing with merging school districts. We need to look at local demographic conditions and recognize that even in a state like New Hampshire, there's quite a bit of variability.
What trends during COVID stood out?
I was a little bit surprised at what happened during the COVID era. We lost over 1.2-1.3 million people in the United States to COVID, and I knew all the New Hampshire counties except Hillsborough were losing people.
I was taken aback at how much migration there was to New Hampshire during the COVID period. People were leaving urban cores and going to the suburbs and beyond, which is to the advantage of New Hampshire.
How are births counted in demographic data?
Births are counted in the county in which the mother resided. We actually have a challenge in New Hampshire because a significant number of babies are born in Massachusetts, especially if there's any risk, so it takes a while for the data to shift back, but these births are all counted in the place of residence of the mother.
Are other states seeing similar demographic patterns?
Many of the southern states have received significant influxes of population. But there are many states that would give anything to have the migration profiles that New Hampshire does.
New Hampshire is receiving significant inflows of people in their thirties and forties, and their children. Yes, New Hampshire has challenges retaining its young adult population, but it's done reasonably well even at that.
What can we learn from Maine and Vermont?
New Hampshire is like Maine and Vermont in that it has an older population and a smaller child population. Maine is interesting because the Portland metro area is doing very well at attracting young adults; the rest has challenges. In Vermont, Burlington does reasonably well, while other parts are facing challenges.
They also have recreational areas attracting amenity migrants. Many of these migrants bring expertise from government or corporations, which can be a real advantage to small communities. If communities can figure out how to engage them, it's an enormous source of talent.
Where are amenity migrants settling?
There are a set of counties in New Hampshire and other states that, during COVID, received huge influxes of people. There were stories that houses were being bought before they even went onto the market.
