Key Findings
Population gains occurred last year in five of six New England states.
New England’s population gain of 123,000 (0.8 percent) between July 2023 and July 2024 was its largest in recent years, according to new Census Bureau estimates. International immigration accounted for the entire population gain, offsetting an excess of deaths over births and an outflow of domestic migrants to other U.S. destinations. Immigration was also an important source of population gain nationwide accounting for 84 percent of the U.S. population gain of 3.4 million. This produced the largest population gain in the United States in more than 20 years.
Five of New England’s six states gained population last year, though the source of growth varied by state (Figure 1). Immigration was the driving force behind population gains in three of the six states. Massachusetts and Connecticut gained population because of a substantial influx of immigrants and were also the only New England states to have more births than deaths. Together this immigration and natural increase offset a continuing outflow of domestic migrants to other U.S. destinations from both states. In both Massachusetts and Connecticut, immigration provided over 90 percent of their substantial population gain. In Rhode Island, immigration produced the entire population gain, offsetting domestic outmigration and more deaths than births. Vermont was the only New England state to lose population last year because the excess of deaths over births combined with domestic outmigration exceeded the modest influx of immigrants to the state.
Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2024. Analysis: K. M. Johnson, Carsey School, UNH.
Maine and New Hampshire continued to gain population last year, just as they have since 2020, although neither’s past-year gain was as large as those in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or Connecticut. However, between 2020 and 2024, Maine and New Hampshire’s population gains have been the largest in the region. Most of their population gains were due to an influx of domestic migrants from other states, but each state also benefited from (international) immigration. These net migration gains offset a continuing excess of deaths over births in each state. Yet, domestic migration to both states has diminished recently, while immigration has increased. Future migration patterns are of increasing importance to each state because their older populations and lower birth rates diminish the likelihood of future natural increase.
Methods and Data
This analysis is based on Census Bureau Population Estimates for April 1, 2020, to June 30, 2024, released on December 19, 2024. The Census Bureau revised its procedures to estimate international immigration and these new estimates are incorporated into the data for 2022 to 2024. Readers should recognize that although the Bureau uses the best data and algorithms available at the time of release to generate the data, they remain estimates and are subject to future revision.
About the Author
Kenneth M. Johnson is senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy, professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire, and an Andrew Carnegie Fellow. His research was supported by the NH Agricultural Experiment Station through joint funding from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (under Hatch-Multistate project W5001, award number 7003437) and the state of New Hampshire. The opinions are his and not those of the sponsoring organizations.
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