Tariffs and Tourism: What’s Next in New Hampshire’s Trade with Canada?
How will the Trump administration’s tariffs and commentary affect trade and tourism with Canada, New Hampshire’s largest trading partner? In this session, Brian Gottlob, Principal at PolEcon and Director of New Hampshire’s Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, explored the history of New Hampshire-Canada economic activity and potential effects of a trade war on the Granite State’s businesses. We also heard from Timothy Egan about the New England-Canada Business Council and its priorities in the coming months.
Watch the Video
Access Timothy Egan's presentation on behalf of the New England Canada Business Council.
Brian Gottlob is the Principal of PolEcon (POL’ EE’ CON) Research, an economic consulting firm located in Dover, New Hampshire. He also serves as the Director of the NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau. For more than three decades Brian has analyzed economic, demographic, labor market, and industry trends for corporations, trade associations, government agencies, and legal/ lobbying firms. Brian has completed studies on a wide range of economic, demographic, and labor market issues in New Hampshire and 30 other states. Prior to PolEcon, Brian was a Vice President for Fiscal and Economic Policy at the Business and Industry Association of New Hampshire.
Tim Egan is the northern states Vice President for the New England-Canada Business Council (NECBC), which works to advance business, political, and cultural relationships between Canada and the United States and to help members grow their cross-border professional networks. He was a Business Representative on the New Hampshire Canadian Trade Council from 2014–2024 and represented Grafton District #2 in the NH House of Representatives from 2018–2022.
Tim also teaches Business and Communications & Journalism and courses in the Cannabis Studies Certificate Program at Vermont State University. He serves as AFT 7810 Part-Time Faculty Union Delegate and coordinates the Castleton campus’s Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP) Internship. An award-winning media consultant, Tim specializes in broadcast and web-based video content services for education, entertainment, marketing and media affairs, practicing in New England, the New York Metropolitan area, and Eastern Canada. As the inaugural Marketing Chair for the National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, he promoted its brand growth, then incorporated its promotion into his current role as Chair of Strategic Planning.
Are ICE policies and broader immigration scrutiny impacting tourism and business?
Canadians are responding not just by not wanting to come here, but by fearing coming here. Are they going to bring a colleague or a friend that may not have accurate documentation and have some type of problem because there is this overarching look at every document with a fine microscope?
Another place where it might affect itself is Canadian workers. If there's more scrutiny and it takes more time, does a Canadian business say this is going to be frustrating, I'm not going to set up shop there?
That's where New Hampshire, along with Maine and Vermont, are going to hurt because proximity to Quebec or Montreal is important.
What should New Hampshire leadership do to strengthen relationships with Canada?
At the highest levels in New Hampshire, we need to make sure we are welcoming. We respect your sovereignty, we respect you as individuals, and New Hampshire is a great place to do business.
We need to be very clear to Canadian provinces and officials that we want to maintain that relationship—it's absolutely critical. Whatever is happening at the national level, we have to go our own way and make it clear this is not how we treat neighbors.
The state already spends about a million dollars a year marketing New Hampshire in Montreal. Could we do more of that? Vermont actually has a trade office in Montreal, and Maine has the International Trade Office, which does repeated FAM trips or business trips to Canada. Could we do more? That would require more investment in marketing and outreach, and saying clearly, we are open for business.
Another step is tapping organizations to create summits or discussions that show we are interested in engagement.
How can the state manage uncertainty from tariffs and shifting federal policy?
We have very few levers to reduce that uncertainty. The damage is already done because it has put investment and hiring decisions on hold. When you create that much uncertainty, and policies can be reversed, there is nothing consistent that we can count on. As a state, I don't think there's anything we can do to reduce that uncertainty.
The people who bear the brunt are business leaders and consumers. If the state can engage its legislature to think about what policies could help mitigate this, that may help.
What are the long-term impacts of tariffs on businesses?
It will take a few years for equilibrium to be reached, but that doesn't mean everybody is made whole. Particularly, small businesses will be impacted.
