Category: Demography

Resource Category Topic Type
U.S. Fertility Up Slightly, but 8.6 Million Fewer Births Long Term
In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that National Center for Health Statistics data for 2021 show a slight increase in births, rising 1.5 percent from the 2020 level which was a 40-year low.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Fertility Publication
U.S. Population Growth Slows, but Diversity Grows
In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2019 the U.S. population grew at the lowest rate in a century because there were fewer births, more deaths, and less immigration. Fertility rates diminished regardless of race or Hispanic origin and immigration declines were also widespread. As a result, the growth rate of both the minority and non-Hispanic White population diminished. Yet, the racial diversity of the population continued to grow, according to Census Bureau estimates released on June 25, 2020. This increasing diversity reflects two important demographic trends. The minority population is growing, and the non-Hispanic White population is declining. This interplay of White and minority demographic change increased diversity.
COVID-19, Demography Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Hispanics, Immigration, Mortality Publication
Understanding Connections Between Rural Communities and Family Well-Being: A Study of Hampton, Iowa
In this report, author Cynthia Needles Fletcher explores the role of "place" in shaping rural residents'-and in particular low-income residents'-futures. The analysis draws from interviews with residents and community key informants in Hampton, Iowa in an original study in 1997 and again in 2012-13.
Vulnerable Families Research Program Community, Demography, Family, Health Publication
Voting and Attitudes Along the Red Rural–Blue Urban Continuum
Political commentary often divides the nation into two partisan zones, urban and rural, but new analysis demonstrates that the rural–urban gradient is a continuum, not a dichotomy. In this study of the 2018 congressional midterms, authors Kenneth Johnson and Dante Scala confirm their earlier analysis of the 2016 presidential election and demonstrate how voting patterns and political attitudes vary across the spectrum of urban and rural areas.
Demography Demography, Politics and Elections, Rural, Urban Publication
White Deaths Exceed Births in One-Third of U.S. States
In 2014, deaths among non-Hispanic whites exceeded births in more states than at any time in U.S. history. Seventeen states, home to 121 million residents or roughly 38 percent of the U.S. population, had more deaths than births among non-Hispanic whites (hereafter referred to as whites) in 2014, compared to just four in 2004. When births fail to keep pace with deaths, a region is said to have a “natural decrease” in population, which can only be offset by migration gains. In twelve of the seventeen states with white natural decreases, the white population diminished overall between 2013 and 2014. This research is the first to examine the growing incidence of white natural decrease among U.S. states and to consider its policy implications. Our analysis of the demographic factors that cause white natural decrease suggests that the pace is likely to pick up in the future. Over the last several decades, demographers have noted the growing incidence of natural decrease in the United States.1 More widespread natural decrease results from declining fertility due to the Great Recession, and the aging of the large baby boom cohorts born between 1946 and 1964. This senior population is projected to expand from nearly 15 percent of the total population in 2015 to nearly 24 percent in 2060.2 Much of this aging baby boom population is white, and so white mortality is growing. Together, growing white mortality and the diminishing number of white births increase the likelihood of more white natural decrease. In contrast, births exceed deaths by a considerable margin among the younger Latino population, and the combination of these very different demographic trends is increasing the diversity of the U.S. population.3
Demography Demography, Mortality Publication
Why People Move to and Stay in New Hampshire
Migration is important to New Hampshire’s demographic future. Traditionally, the state has grown both because of migration into it and because of the surplus of births over deaths. However, recently all of New Hampshire’s population growth has been due to migration. In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Kristine Bundschuh analyze data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll to examine the characteristics of two groups of current New Hampshire residents—recent migrants and established residents—to understand why people move to and choose to stay in the state. Their findings illustrate that migration decisions are influenced by an interrelated set of factors that encompass elements of the state’s social, economic, and natural environment.
Demography, New Hampshire Birth Rates, Demography, Migration, New Hampshire, Public Opinion Publication
With Less Migration, Natural Increase is Now More Important to State Growth
According to Johnson's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, the nation continues to experience reduced levels of domestic migration (movement from one state to another) as a result of the economic recession, and natural increases (births versus deaths) are an increasingly important factor in population gains.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Migration, Mortality Publication