Category: Mortality

Resource Category Topic Type
2020 Census Reflects Lagging U.S. Population Growth
In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the first data from the 2020 Census reveal a significant slowdown in U.S. population growth.
Demography Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Fertility, Migration, Mortality Publication
Deaths Exceed Births in Most of Europe, But Not in the United States
With the increased attention to Europe’s demographic future stimulated by the on-going immigration crisis, we present important new findings about the diminishing number of births compared to deaths in Europe and the United States from our recent article in Population and Development Review. When births fail to keep pace with deaths in a country there is a “natural” decrease in population and a substantial risk of population loss—loss that can often only be avoided by increased migration. Seventeen European nations have more people dying in them than being born, including several of Europe’s most populous countries. In contrast, in the United States, births exceed deaths by a substantial margin. See Figure 1. Our research focuses on the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in subareas of Europe and the United States in the first decade of the twenty-first century using counties (United States) or county-equivalents (Europe). We find that 58 percent of the 1,391 counties of Europe had more deaths than births during that period compared to just 28 percent of the 3,137 U.S. counties. Natural decrease is often intermittent at first with deaths exceeding births in some years, but not in others. Later, it becomes more persistent. In Europe, 41 percent of the counties had more deaths than births in every year we studied; 30 percent had it in some years; and in 29 percent births always exceeded deaths. Natural decrease was far less prevalent in the United States, where 11 percent of the counties had natural decrease in each year; 35 percent in some years; and in the majority of counties (53 percent) births always exceeded deaths. See Figure 2.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Mortality Publication
Deaths Exceed Births in Record Number of U.S. Counties
In this fact sheet, author Kenneth Johnson examines new data released by the Census Bureau which provide insights into the continuing influence of the Great Recession on U.S. demographic trends. He reports that, for the first time in U.S. history, deaths exceeded births in two entire states: Maine and West Virginia, and a record 36 percent of all U.S.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Mortality, Seniors Publication
Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020
In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that many more deaths, fewer births, and less immigration produced the United States’ smallest percentage population gain in at least 100 years.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Mortality Publication
Deaths Exceeded Births in Nearly Half of U.S. Counties Last Year
In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that even before the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, deaths were at a record high in the United States last year, but there were the fewest births since 1986, according to new Census Bureau estimates.
COVID-19, Demography Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Mortality, Seniors Publication
Diversity Growing Because Births Far Exceed Deaths Among Minorities, But Not Among Whites
The growing diversity of the U.S. population evident in new Census Bureau estimates reflects two important demographic trends. The minority population is growing and the non-Hispanic white population is not. This interplay of white and minority population change is fueling the growing diversity of the U.S. population. The minority population is growing both because births far exceed deaths and because there is significant immigration. In contrast, growth has been minimal among the non-Hispanic white population because aging has reduced births and increased deaths. The distinctly different demographic trajectories among whites and minorities are driven by the interaction of several key demographic forces. Natural increase (births to deaths) is the major force behind the growing diversity of the U.S. population, though immigration remains important. Although the pace of U.S. population growth is slowing because of the lingering impact of the Great Recession and the aging of the population, the population continues to become more diverse. This will produce a rich tapestry of demographic change in the United States over the next several decades. The importance of natural increase to the growing diversity of the U.S. population is clearly evident among non-Hispanic whites. Currently, whites account for 78 percent of all U.S. deaths, but less than 50 percent of births. In each of last three years, more non-Hispanic whites died than were born. Such natural decrease is without precedent in U.S. history. Between July of 2013 and July of 2014, there were 2,036,000 non-Hispanic white deaths, but only 1,975,000 births. So, deaths exceeded births by 62,000. This gap is wider than last year, when there were 1,980,000 non-Hispanic white births compared to 2,007,000 deaths: a difference of 27,000. The non-Hispanic white population did increase slightly each year, but only because of immigration. The immigration gain was 155,000 between July of 2013 and 2014. So, the non-Hispanic white population grew by just 94,000 (.04 percent). Ironically, non-Hispanic whites are now more dependent on immigration for population increase than any other group. Though non-Hispanic white natural increase may occur again as fertility rates recover from the economic downturn, it is likely to be short-lived because the population is aging rapidly.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Mortality Publication
Drug Overdose Rates Are Highest in Places With the Most Economic and Family Distress
The U.S. drug overdose problem has reached epidemic levels, prompting President Trump to declare a public health emergency. Since 2000, 786,781 people in the United States have died from drug overdoses and other drug-related causes, with nearly 40 percent of those deaths occurring in the last three years alone.
Demography Drugs, Family, Mortality, Substance Abuse Publication
Latest Data Show All New England States Are Gaining Population
In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that population gains were widespread in New England last year, according to new Census Bureau estimates.
COVID-19, Demography, New Hampshire COVID-19, Demography, Immigration, Migration, Mortality, New England, New Hampshire Publication
Migration Continues to Fuel New Hampshire’s Population Gain
In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 7,700 (0.55 percent) to 1,395,000 between July of 2021 and July of 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates.
Demography, New Hampshire Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Mortality, New England, New Hampshire Publication
Migration Sustains New Hampshire’s Population Gain
New Hampshire’s demographic future depends heavily on migration. The state’s population continued to grow in 2021 and 2022 because a migration gain of 18,300 was enough to offset the excess of deaths over births.
Demography, New Hampshire Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Fertility, Migration, Mortality, New Hampshire Publication
More Coffins than Cradles in 2,300 U.S. Counties: COVID’s Grim Impact
In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that COVID’s impact is reflected in the sharp rise in U.S. deaths, reaching 3,434,000 between July 2020 and July 2021. This is a record high and 20 percent more than two years ago before the COVID pandemic.
COVID-19, Demography Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Mortality Publication
Natural Decrease in America: More Coffins than Cradles
This brief summarizes recent regional patterns of natural decrease in the United States. Natural decrease occurs when more deaths than births occur in an area in a given year. The growing incidence of natural decrease has gone largely unnoticed, yet natural decrease is no longer an isolated phenomenon occurring in a few remote corners of the country. Last year, 24 percent of all U.S. counties experienced natural decrease. And, for the first time in U.S. history, deaths now exceed births in an entire state. Author Ken Johnson discusses the implications of natural decrease, as well as the impact of the recent influx of immigrants in some regions of rural and urban America—a phenomenon that is impacting natural increase.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Mortality Publication
New Census Data Reflect the Continuing Impact of Covid on U.S. Demographic Trends
In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, according to recent Census Bureau estimates, the U.S. population has grown at the slowest rate in history in the past two years due to the impact of Covid.
Demography Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Migration, Mortality, Rural, Urban Publication
New Hampshire Population Grew Last Year, Even Though Deaths Exceeded Births
In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports the population of New Hampshire grew by 6,200 to 1,360,000 between July of 2018 and July of 2019 according to new Census Bureau estimates. The state’s population increased even though there were fewer births than deaths in the state last year.
Demography, New Hampshire Birth Rates, Demography, Migration, Mortality, New Hampshire Publication
New Hampshire’s Estimated Population Gain Is the Largest in New England
In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 5,500 to 1,366,000 between July of 2019 and July of 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates. ​This was the largest percentage population gain in New England. ​
Demography, New Hampshire COVID-19, Demography, Mortality, New England, New Hampshire Publication
Population Gains Continue in New Hampshire, but the Pace Varies
In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population reached 1,402,054 on July 1, 2023, an increase of 24,500 residents since April 1, 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates.
Demography, New Hampshire Birth Rates, Demography, Migration, Mortality, New Hampshire Publication
Population Gains Widespread in New Hampshire Counties Due to Migration
In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 17,700 to 1,395,000 between April 2020, when the 2020 Census was conducted, and July 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. These population gains were widespread, occurring in each of the state’s ten counties despite deaths exceeding births in nine of the ten counties.
Demography, New Hampshire Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Migration, Mortality, New Hampshire Publication
Population Growth in New Hispanic Destinations
Natural increase—more births than deaths—is now the major engine of Hispanic population growth in many large metro areas and their suburbs, as well as numerous smaller metropolitan areas and rural communities. Hispanics now account for half of U.S. population growth, and Hispanic population growth is the reason many communities grew instead of declined.
Demography Birth Rates, Demography, Hispanics, Mortality, Race, Rural, Urban Publication
Recent Data Suggest Rural America Is Growing Again After a Decade of Population Loss
In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that after a decade of population loss, rural America gained population between 2020 and 2021 because migration gains offset a growing excess of deaths over births due to COVID-19.
Demography Demography, Migration, Mortality Publication
Recent Demographic Trends Have Implications for Rural Health Care
In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that nonmetropolitan (rural) America gained population between April of 2020 and July of 2022. In the preceding decade, rural areas lost population, both because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because births just minimally exceeded deaths.
COVID-19, Demography Birth Rates, COVID-19, Demography, Migration, Mortality, Rural, Urban Publication