Category: Demography

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that even before the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, deaths were at a record high in the United States last year, but there were the fewest births since 1986, according to new Census Bureau estimates.

This brief examines the population redistribution in the Northern Forest, which includes thirty-four counties scattered across northern and central Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont.

In the city of Manchester, New Hampshire, 25 percent of children live below the poverty line, a high rate that is in stark contrast to the state's rate of just 10 percent, one of the nation's lowest. That is the most surprising finding from this new analysis of demographic trends in the Manchester-Nashua metropolitan area. The brief presents recent demographic shifts in Manchester, Nashua, and suburban Hillsborough County alongside historical perspectives of the region.

The growing diversity of the U.S. population evident in new Census Bureau estimates reflects two important demographic trends. The minority population is growing and the non-Hispanic white population is not. This interplay of white and minority population change is fueling the growing diversity of the U.S. population. The minority population is growing both because births far exceed deaths and because there is significant immigration. In contrast, growth has been minimal among the non-Hispanic white population because aging has reduced births and increased deaths. The distinctly different demographic trajectories among whites and minorities are driven by the interaction of several key demographic forces. Natural increase (births to deaths) is the major force behind the growing diversity of the U.S. population, though immigration remains important. Although the pace of U.S. population growth is slowing because of the lingering impact of the Great Recession and the aging of the population, the population continues to become more diverse. This will produce a rich tapestry of demographic change in the United States over the next several decades. The importance of natural increase to the growing diversity of the U.S. population is clearly evident among non-Hispanic whites. Currently, whites account for 78 percent of all U.S. deaths, but less than 50 percent of births. In each of last three years, more non-Hispanic whites died than were born. Such natural decrease is without precedent in U.S. history. Between July of 2013 and July of 2014, there were 2,036,000 non-Hispanic white deaths, but only 1,975,000 births. So, deaths exceeded births by 62,000. This gap is wider than last year, when there were 1,980,000 non-Hispanic white births compared to 2,007,000 deaths: a difference of 27,000. The non-Hispanic white population did increase slightly each year, but only because of immigration. The immigration gain was 155,000 between July of 2013 and 2014. So, the non-Hispanic white population grew by just 94,000 (.04 percent). Ironically, non-Hispanic whites are now more dependent on immigration for population increase than any other group. Though non-Hispanic white natural increase may occur again as fertility rates recover from the economic downturn, it is likely to be short-lived because the population is aging rapidly.

Like much of rural America, Southeast Alaska is confronting the social implications of both population declines and the downturn in natural resource-based industries. Although many residents have chosen to leave Alaska in the last decade, the majority have stayed. Strong social cohesion and intimate ties to the natural amenities of the region are what sustain rural Alaskans. It is these connections to people and place that may ultimately enable residents to create renewed and more resilient Alaskan communities. Examining the challenges faced by Southeast Alaska, this brief discusses ways to encourage community groups and governmental agencies to work collaboratively to craft a robust economic future for the region.

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter report that although population declines were widespread between 2010 and 2020, rural America became more racially and ethnically diverse.

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson discusses the likely influence that the age structure and the incidence of pre-existing health conditions have on the risks of those exposed to COVID-19 in rural and urban counties in the United States.

This brief analyzes immigration and refugee resettlement in Manchester and the effects on the city’s demographic composition, as well as the implications for its future. Authors Sally Ward, Justin Young, and Curt Grimm report that Manchester, New Hampshire, like the nation, is experiencing a new wave of immigration.

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter summarize their peer reviewed article in Demography that provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and urban growth.