Next Steps in U.S. and State Energy Portfolios
How will shifts in federal policy affect the composition of our national and state energy portfolios? Will solar and wind markets collapse without government incentives? In this session Stephen Bird, Director of the Carsey School of Public Policy and energy policy scholar, described a variety of factors affecting energy policy and markets including subsidies, tariffs, and current actions at both the state and national level. He presented current and past trajectories for different energy sources and discuss current concerns for energy affordability, security, sustainability, and the energy transition.
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Next Steps in U.S. and State Energy Portfolios
Stephen Bird is the Director of Carsey School of Public Policy and a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. He is also a research professor (courtesy) at the Institute for Sustainable Environment at Clarkson University where he was formerly a full professor of political science. In addition, he's a faculty Research Affiliate with the Positive Energy Project at the University of Ottawa.
Stephen's work examines all aspects of energy policy and regulation broadly, with a deep focus on impacting the energy transition. Engagements and research awards have included New York’s Energy Research Authority, the U.S. State Department, the European Commission, National Resources Canada, a 2016 Fulbright Research Chair, and the National Science Foundation. Corporate partnerships have included the NY Power Authority, GE, National Grid, AMD, the US Green Building Council, and IBM.
His current research and engagements focus on energy conflict & polarization, drivers of energy acceptance (fracking, solar, wind), split incentives and smart housing, and energy technology governance & implementation (microgrids, green data centers).
Stephen completed his PhD at Boston University and his Masters at Harvard University.
How should we think about carbon pricing, gas taxes, and economic incentives in energy use?
Economists will tell you carbon pricing is the only way you're going to get an appropriate market reaction that accounts for pollution and cost. The problem is carbon taxes are the Kryptonite of the energy system, they are so disliked.
The one place in North America that legislated a serious carbon tax was British Columbia, and that included rebates for residents. Those rebates were substantial, but they were still universally detested. In Europe, we saw huge protests, in France, and one of the reasons for the emergence of the National Front was because of carbon policies.
Leah Stokes has advocated that every time we see carbon taxes, they don't work, they don't pass, people don't want them. She argues you need a system based on incentives and subsidies to accelerate the clean energy transition. Those systems tend to have more stickiness because no one wants to get rid of a subsidy.
I do agree that the most efficient way to address carbon is via pricing, but it is very difficult to think about where political will comes from to maintain it without loopholes or weak taxes. If you're going to do it, I'm an advocate of cap-and-trade systems rather than a straight tax to give business more flexibility.
How does offshore wind fit into the energy mix, particularly in New Hampshire?
My understanding is that a ban in New Hampshire is not expected to pass. The challenge is that wind is dependent on federal permitting. At a. minimum, we're not going to see offshore wind anytime soon.
These are massive investments, and if you have. large-scale risk attached to them, that too scary for developers. They're going to go install wind in other places and probably steer clear of the United States for now.
There is concern in New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island about the impact of wind on the fishing industry. There are examples where wind and fishing communities have worked in harmony through payment or proxy taxes for distribution.
For New Hampshire, it's not going to be massive because the amount of shoreline is so small; it's a much bigger implication for Massachusetts and Maine.
What role should states and local governments play in energy policy?
State legislatures have a real role to play in creating legislation that allows for different kinds of energy models. The power system is becoming much more fragmented and diverse, with distributed energy resources.
One challenge is net energy metering, which has become problematic in a lot of states. Thoughtful states have been more careful to account for costs to low-income residents who can't afford solar, and to consider what happens if more people leave the utility system.
The challenge is to create structures that account for those costs and maintain a large-scale interconnected grid, even Is the system changes. Careful, thoughtful state policy that accounts for interests across the board is really important.
At a national level, both parties have failed to think about how to account for workers affected by changes in the energy system. That's why there is dissatisfaction among voters and people in the energy industry.
The big question is whether policymakers are thinking about where people go next as energy systems change. Can you create policy that accounts for these changes and does not disrupt people's lives so much? Legislatures need to account for people who might be left behind.
How should we think about global climate policy and equity?
We're seeing the failure right now of a global system to address climate change. There are concerns that rich nations are not adhering to their commitments.
I see potential value in environmental or human rights tariffs globally. We might see the emergence of standards associated with environmental production that are real and serious, and similar standards for human rights.
One concern is the production of solar panels that may involve unsafe labor. I would love to have an international inspection system that ensures that's not the case.
In the same way we saw movement against sweatshops and increasing transparency, we might start to see the emergence of environmental and human rights standards in the energy system.
