COVID-19 Economic Crisis: By State

Infographic: June 2021 COVID-19 Jobs Report Data

Key Findings

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Although job growth continued to accelerate in June, all but two states remain with fewer payroll jobs than in February 2020.

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Twenty-one states still have over 5% fewer jobs than before the pandemic.

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In almost every state, lower wage industries are still down more jobs than high wage industries.

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Economic activity in the first quarter of 2021, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, was up in 14 states relative to February 2020 while 35 states still have smaller economies than they did pre-pandemic.

With the strongest job growth yet in 2021, June was encouraging for the country’s economic trajectory. Even with over three million jobs gained so far in 2021, however, all but two states are still short of their February 2020 employment levels. Nationally, payroll employment is still down 6.8 million jobs, a four percent shortfall, from February 2020—highlighting how far the economy sank last year.

As measured by Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 35 states and the District of Columbia have smaller economies, as of the first quarter of this year, than they did before COVID-19, while 14 states have seen a modicum of economic growth. Nationally, GDP remains 0.9% lower than it was before the pandemic struck. The trend has been continually upward since the huge decline in the second quarter of 2020.

The current economy is a legacy of the United States’ 2020 failure to contain COVID-19. The pace of progress moving forward will depend on vigilance and responsiveness to changing circumstances as the country and world find their way after unique, intertwined, public health and economic shocks.

Map 1 compares states in the percent change in the number of payroll jobs between the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) February 2020 survey and its June 2021 survey (covering payroll periods containing June 12). Selecting a state on the map will reveal the change in the number of jobs over the period as well as the percent change. The selectors at the top of the map allow users to toggle between the change in employment between February 2020 and June 2021, the change for 2021 through June, and the change in employment for only the last month: May to June.

Map 1: Change in Employment, February 2020 to June 2021

  1. Employment data used here are seasonally adjusted, meaning that the Bureau of Labor Statistics accounts for normal seasonal variation in employment due to various factors.
  2. Small differences between states in the percent job change may not be statistically significant.

As of June 2021 the largest net job shortfall was in Hawaii, which is down 14.1% of its pre-pandemic employment, followed by New York, Alaska and Louisiana, which are down 9.5%, 8.4% and 7.8% respectively. Twenty-five states had statistically significant job growth in June with only Alaska seeing a decline. Two other states, Idaho and Utah, have seen small job increases from February 2020 to June 2021, with gains of 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively. These states had been among the fastest growing prior to the pandemic, ranking second and sixth respectively in February 2019 to February 2020 job growth.

Twenty-one states are still down more than 5% of their jobs relative to before the pandemic. The industries that were hit hardest continue to be down substantial numbers of jobs in most states, although some less dramatically impacted industries in a number of states are back to pre-COVID levels.

The hardest hit sector continues to be Leisure and Hospitality, in which, nationally, the Accommodation and Food Services industry is still down 11.9% of its employment (1.7 million jobs) and the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation industry 18.4% (459,000 jobs) as of June. New York, Alaska and Hawaii are still down over 25% in Accommodation and Food Services employment as of June. 

State and local government employment has notably fallen across the country. In the United States overall, state government employment is down 4.0% from February 2020 to June 2021 and local government employment has been reduced by 5.4%. State and local governments combined are down over one million jobs. From February 2020 to June 2021, three state governments reduced their employment by over 9%: Hawaii, North Carolina and Virginia. Local governments in five states—New Mexico, Vermont, Oregon, Alaska and California—have reduced their employment by over 9%.

As discussed more later, the labor-intensive Health Care and Social Assistance industry has contributed greatly to total job losses in most states, with payroll employment down 773,000 nationally—though in percentage terms it has been less hard hit than the hardest-hit industries, having lost 3.7% of jobs nationally as of June.

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, and Finance and Insurance, are the only two private industries that have returned to their pre-COVID level of employment nationally and have fully recovered in 31 and 20 states respectively. Other industries in some states have returned to pre-COVID levels of employment— Construction has returned to pre-recession levels in 9 states and Retail Trade has recovered in 11 states, for example. 

Overall, progress back to pre-recession levels in 2021 has varied significantly among states. Hawaii, Nevada, Minnesota. Colorado and Washington have seen the strongest job growth so far this year relative to their February 2020 employment levels. The slowest growing states by this measure have been Wyoming, Alaska, South Carolina, and Louisiana. For all of these states except Nevada, their ranking is closely correlated with their Accommodations and Food Service Industry employment. Although the overall jobs picture is driven by multiple industries in all of these states, in the case of Nevada growth in the Accommodations and Food Service Industry has been about average, but other industries have been particularly strong. Nevada has led the country in Manufacturing, Retail and Professional and Business Services sector job growth.

Map 1 can display individual sectors and industries as well as employment for all sectors and industries. Descriptions of each sector and industry can be found on the BLS website. The table in addendum 1 shows a top-to-bottom ranking, sortable by state name or employment change from February 2020 to the latest month, for 2021 only, or for the most recent month. The table can list employment for all sectors and industries, or individual sectors and industries.

Chart 1 compares (1) the change in number of jobs during the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), (2) job loss in the current crisis from February 2020 and (3) job change in each month from March 2020 through the latest month. Comparisons can be viewed for the nation or a selected state, district, or territory as well as for total payroll employment or a selected sector or industry.

  1. Employment data are seasonally adjusted.

The overall picture is one of an economic recovery that had fallen off over the last half of 2020 and into January 2021, with a pickup starting in February. In total employment as of June, 22 states were down more jobs than they lost from their peak employment to their low point in the Great Recession. Forty-seven states are still down more jobs than during the Great Recession in Accommodation and Food Services, 28 are down more in Heath Care and Social Assistance, 34 in local government, and 26 are down more in state government.

Chart 2 shows in stark fashion the extent of job loss at the beginning of the pandemic, the immediate partial bounce back, the slowing of the recovery, and the turnaround in February. Between February and April 2020, in almost every state, all or most of the jobs gained since the Great Recession were lost. This marked a sharp reversal from the steady climb seen nationally that began in 2010, accelerated starting in 2012, and had slackened in the last few years. The sharp drops of March and April 2020 reversed in May of the year, but the rate of progress slowed and even reversed in some states at the end of 2020 and into January 2021. Starting in February of this year, growth again accelerated.

  1. Employment data are seasonally adjusted.

The path of the economy has been influenced by the prevalence of COVID-19 and the federal government’s response. The first flood of cases in early 2020 caused massive job losses. The economy began to bounce back as governments responded, cases declined, and businesses and people adjusted. In the latter half of 2020 and into January 2021, however, cases again rose and federal government support tailed off, leading to a slowing of economic progress. Since strong steps by the federal government started to have an impact in February and March, and optimism about the health situation has grown, the economy has regained positive momentum. The hope is that this progress will be sustained and see us to the end of the recession.

Two timeframes are available in Chart 2: December 2007 to present or a closer look at just 2020 and 2021. Total employment is available for both timeframes and specific industries are available for the more recent period.

Chart 3 shows the change in employment for the selected state or area for each industry (or for some states, sector). Accommodation and Food Services has contributed the most to job loss in every state that is still down jobs except North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wyoming, where Mining and Logging has contributed the most job loss; New Mexico where Local Government has been the biggest contributor; and Kansas, where manufacturing has been hardest hit. Health Care and Social Assistance, and Administrative and Support and Waste Management Services are still down significantly in payroll employment in most states. Within Health Care and Social Assistance, industry losses nationally have been mostly in Nursing and Residential Care Facilities and Social Assistance. Social Assistance includes Child Day Care, which is down 11% nationally in employment as of June. Selecting the bars in the charts will show the change in employment for that industry or sector from February 2020 to June 2021, and April to June.

  1. “SA” indicates that the data for the sector or industry are seasonally adjusted. “NSA” indicates that the data are not seasonally adjusted.

Chart 4 shows the relationship between job loss and average weekly wages for each industry. The overwhelming number of jobs lost have been in low-paying industries. Nationally, Accommodation and Food Service was down 1.7 million jobs (a 11.9% decline) as of June and had an average weekly pay of $433 in 2019. Health Care and Social Assistance was down 773,000 jobs in this time period, Retail was down 303,000 jobs, and Administrative and Support and Waste Management Services was down 616,000 jobs. These industries' average weekly pay nationally were $996, $646, and $828, respectively. Meanwhile, Management of Companies and Enterprises had lost fewer than 92,000 jobs and Finance and Insurance gained over 24,000 jobs—with average weekly pay of $2,429 and $2,166, respectively.

  1. Hourly pay levels are not available as comprehensively as weekly wages at the state level so they are not used here, but the pattern for hourly wages is similar to the pattern for weekly wages.

These wage levels are, of course, averages across a wide range of jobs within the industries. Finance and Insurance includes both the heads of Wall Street firms and bank tellers. It is clear, however, that job loss has been significantly more acute in low-wage jobs than high-wage jobs. Low-wage employees are obviously much more heavily impacted by job loss. They have less in savings, and those who had employer-provided health insurance are less likely to be able to afford continuing coverage. 

Table 1 shows the percentages of job loss for each industry in the country, selected state, district, or territory. Industries with more employees are, of course, more likely to contribute more greatly to the total numbers of job losses shown in Charts 3 and 4—just as larger states contribute the most to national job loss. From the perspective of an employee, customer, owner, or other stakeholder in an industry, the level of impact is measured best by the percent of jobs in the industry that have been lost. It is notable that, when looked at this way, Accommodations and Food Services is extremely hard hit. Thus, the reason that large numbers of low-wage workers in this industry have lost their job isn’t just that there are large numbers of them in this industry—it’s also that the industry has been particularly impacted by the pandemic and ensuing recession. Higher paying industries have not lost as large of a share of their jobs. The result is that not only are a large number of waiters out of work, but that a waiter is much more likely to have lost his or her job than a banker.

  1. “SA” indicates that the data for the sector or industry are seasonally adjusted. “NSA” indicates that the data are not seasonally adjusted.

Unemployment Rate

Map 2 shows the unemployment rate. This measure is less reliable than usual under current circumstances. It is a measure of those who are not employed as a share of those who are employed or seeking employment. How respondents respond to survey questions related to whether they are seeking employment in this unusual period is not consistent, which makes the unemployment rate less informative. There are other measures of unemployment, but they are not available by state on a monthly basis.

The highest unemployment rates in June were 7.9% in Connecticut and New Mexico, and 7.8% in Nevada. Nebraska had the lowest unemployment rate at 2.5%. The United States as a whole had an unemployment rate of 5.9% as of June 2021. Clicking on a state in the map will show the rates for February 2020 (pre-pandemic), April 2020 (the worst month of the Covid Recession), and the four most recent months. The chart in Addendum 2 plots the unemployment rate from 2008 through May for the country or selected state, district, or territory.

  1. Employment data are seasonally adjusted.

Employment-to-Population Ratio

Chart 5 shows the Employment-to-Population Ratio (EPOP) for 2020 and 2021. This is the percent of the population that is gainfully employed. For the country and most states, it has dropped significantly since February 2020, with only a slow recovery since then that stalled in October and has increased slowly through the first six months of 2021. In the long run this measure is influenced by factors such as the aging of the population out of prime working years. The dramatic economic impact of COVID-19, however, currently dominates this measure.

  1. Employment data are seasonally adjusted.

Overall Economic Activity

Economic activity, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, was down significantly in 2020. Through the first quarter of 2021, however, 14 states have seen increased GDP relative to their pre-pandemic baseline. The other 35 states and the District of Columbia still have smaller economies than they did prior to the pandemic recession. Map 3 shows the change in GDP by state between the final quarter of 2019 (just before the pandemic began) and the end of the first quarter of 2021. The size of the economy shrunk in every state during 2020, but through the first quarter of 2021 GDP change in states was more variable. The largest GDP increase over this time period was 4% for Utah. At the other end of the spectrum, GDP loss was still over 5% in Hawaii and Wyoming.  

1. Real GDP, Chained 2012 dollars. GDP data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

Chart 6 shows Gross Domestic Product from the end of 2019 through the first quarter of 2021. Each state and the United States can be selected. Nationally, GDP remained 0.9% lower at the end of the first quarter of 2021 than it was at the end of 2019 following a small drop in the first quarter of 2020 and a cataclysmic drop in the second quarter of the year. The second half of 2020 saw a significant GDP rebound in Q3, with smaller national GDP increases in the final quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021. 

A sortable table in Addendum 3 provides both the total GDP change during the COVID-19 pandemic recession as well as the GDP loss during the Great Recession for each state. It is notable that although job loss had remained worse than in the Great Recession through the first quarter of this year, that was not true nationally for GDP. This reflects the particular impact of the current recession on labor-intensive service industries. Despite the improvement nationally, GDP loss during the pandemic recession remains worse than during the Great Recession in 8 states.

1. Real GDP, Chained 2012 dollars. GDP data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

View Addendum 1: Sortable Jobs Table

The table in Addendum 1 can be sorted by percent change in employment, change in the number of jobs, or alphabetically by state. Different sectors and industry can be selected. 

View Addendum 2: Unemployment Rate 2007 to present

Addendum 2 shows the unemployment rate by month from January 2007 to the most current month for which data are available. The national total or individual state, district, or territory can be selected.

View Addendum 3: Sortable GDP Table (2019 Q4 - 2021 Q1)

Addendum 3 shows GDP change from pre-pandemic through the first quarter of 2021 for each state.

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